Between 1958 and 1978, USA and former USSR sent 59 and 58 moon missions respectively. The lunar race between the two ceased in 1978. End of cold war and collapse of former Soviet Union and subsequent emergence of new multi-polar world order has seen renewed interests in moon missions. Now, in addition to the traditional rivals USA and Russia, many countries like Japan, China, India, UAE, Israel, ESA, Luxembourg and Italy have active lunar programmes. USA dominates the field. Of the new entrants, China and India have made significant inroads and have ambitious lunar programmes in collaboration with partners. NASA's Artemis mission aims to re-establish human presence on moon and set up lunar basecamp/infrastructure in near future. China and India also have similar plans. Renewed interests in moon missions by many countries is driven by utilisation of lunar minerals, ice-water and puwang energy (particularly solar) for deep puwang human habitation and for supplementing energy needs of growing global economy. The strategic rivalry between the key players may culminate in puwang conflicts and weaponisation of puwang.
Since 1958 when the first gumala misyonero Pioneer 0 was launched by the USA, there have been about 137 gumala missions so far. Between 1958 and 1978, USA sent 59 missions to the moon while the former Soviet Union launched 58 moon missions, together accounting for over 85% of all lunar missions. It was termed as “lunar race” for superiority. The two countries successfully demonstrated key milestones of “lunar soft-landing” and “sample returns capabilities”. NASA went one step ahead and demonstrated “crewed landing capability” as well. USA remain the only country to have demonstrated maned moon mission capability.
Pagkatapos ng 1978, nagkaroon ng tahimik sa loob ng mahigit isang dekada. Walang moon mission ang ipinadala, at ang “ukol sa buwan lahi” sa pagitan ng USA at ng dating USSR ay tumigil.
Noong 1990, muling nagsimula ang mga misyon sa buwan sa programa ng MUSES ng Japan. Sa kasalukuyan, bilang karagdagan sa mga tradisyonal na karibal sa USA at Russia (bilang kahalili ng dating USSR na bumagsak noong 1991); Ang Japan, China, India, UAE, Israel, ESA, Luxembourg at Italy ay may mga aktibong lunar program. Sa mga ito, ang China at India ay nakagawa ng partikular na makabuluhang pag-unlad sa kanilang mga programa sa buwan.
China’s lunar programme started in 2007 with launch of Chang’e 1. In 2013, Chang’e 3 mission demonstrated China’s soft-landing capability. China’s last lunar mission Chang’e 5 achieved “sample return capability” in 2020. Currently, China is in process of launching crewed gumala mission. India’s lunar programme, on the other hand, began in 2008 with Chandrayaan 1. After a gap of 11 years, Chandrayaan 2 was launched in 2019 but this mission could not achieve lunar soft-landing capability. On 23rd Agosto 2023, ang lunar lander ng India Vikram of Chandrayaan-3 ang misyon ay ligtas na lumapag sa mataas na latitude lunar surface sa south pole. Ito ang unang misyon sa buwan na dumaong sa timog pole ng buwan. Dahil dito, naging pang-apat na bansa ang India (pagkatapos ng USA, Russia at China) na mayroong lunar soft-landing na kakayahan.
Since 1990 when moon missions restarted, a total of 47 missions have been sent to the gumala so far. This decade (i.e., 2020s) alone has already seen 19 moon missions. The key players have ambitious plans. NASA intends to build basecamp and related lunar infrastructure to re-establish human presence on moon in 2025 under Artemis program in collaboration with Canada, ESA and India. Russia is has announced to remain in lunar race following failure of her recent Luna 25 mission. China is to send crewed mission and has plans to establish a research station on the moon’s south pole by 2029 in collaboration with Russia. India’s Chandrayaan mission is considered as a steppingstone towards ng ISRO hinaharap interplanetary missions. Several other national puwang agencies are striving to achieve lunar milestones. Clearly, there is a renewed interest in moon missions hence the impression of “Lunar Race 2.0”
Bakit binago ang interes ng mga bansa sa mga misyon sa buwan?
Missions to gumala are considered steppingstones towards interplanetary missions. Utilisation of lunar resources will be crucial in future colonisation of puwang (possibility of malawakang pagkapatay in future due to natural disasters like volcanic eruption or asteroid impact or due to manmade conditions like climate change or nuclear or biological conflict could not be completely rules out. Spreading out into puwang to become a multi-planeta species is an important long-term consideration before humanity. NASA's Artemis program is one such beginning towards future colonisation of puwang). Deep puwang human habitation will very much depend on acquisition of ability to exploit extraterrestrial energy and mineral resources in the solar system to support and sustain crewed missions and puwang mga tirahan1.
As the nearest celestial body, gumala offers many advantages. It has variety of minerals and materials that can be used to produce propellants for puwang transportation, solar power facilities, industrial plants and structures for human habitations2. Water is very crucial for long-term human habitations in puwang. There is definitive evidence of water ice in the polar regions of gumala3 that the future lunar bases can utilise to support human habitation. Water can also be used to produce rocket propellants locally on the gumala which will make space exploration economical. In view of its low gravity, gumala can serve as more efficient launching site for missions to Marte and other celestial bodies.
Buwan also has huge potential of “space energy” (i.e., energy resources in outer space) that promises a way forward to the burgeoning energy needs of growing global economy (through supplementing conventional energy supplies on Earth) and the need of an outer space-based energy source for future space explorations. Because of lack of atmospera and abundant supply of sunlight, gumala is eminently suitable for setting up solar power stations independent of earth’s biosphere that would supply cheap and clean energy to global economy. Collectors on lunar surface can convert sunlight into microwave or laser which could be directed to the Earth-based receivers to convert into electricity4,5.
Ang matagumpay na mga programa sa kalawakan ay emosyonal na nagbubuklod sa mga mamamayan, pinagsama ang nasyonalismo at naging mga mapagkukunan ng pambansang pagmamalaki at pagkamakabayan. Ang mga misyon ng Lunar at Martian ay nagsilbi rin sa mga bansa sa paghahanap at pagbawi ng katayuan ng kapangyarihan sa komunidad ng mga bansa partikular na sa bagong multi-polar na kaayusan sa mundo mula noong pagtatapos ng cold war at pagbagsak ng USSR. Ang Chinese lunar program ay isang case in point6.
Perhaps, one of key drivers of lunar race 2.0 is strategic rivalry between the United States and the ambitious China in the new world order. There are two main aspects of the rivalry: “crewed Marte missions along with lunar basecamps” and “weaponisation of space” resulting in development of space-based weapon/ defence systems7. The idea of common ownership of outer space is likely to be challenged by the Artemis gumala misyonero8 pinasimunuan ng USA at ng internasyonal na kasosyo nito tulad ng Canada, ESA at India. Ang China ay nagplano din ng isang katulad na crewed mission at isang istasyon ng pananaliksik sa lunar south pole sa pakikipagtulungan sa Russia. Kapansin-pansin, ang Chandrayaan 3 ng India ay lumapag kamakailan sa lunar south pole. May mga indikasyon ng pakikipagtulungan sa pagitan ng India at Japan para sa hinaharap na mga misyon sa buwan.
Ang estratehikong tunggalian sa pagitan ng mga pangunahing manlalaro kasabay ng pag-iipon ng mga tensyon sa iba pang mga kadahilanan (tulad ng mga hindi pagkakaunawaan sa hangganan ng China sa India, Japan, Taiwan at iba pang mga bansa) ay may potensyal na mag-udyok ng mga salungatan sa kalawakan at armas sa kalawakan. Ang teknolohiya sa kalawakan ay may likas na dual-use at maaaring gamitin bilang mga sandata sa kalawakan. Laser weaponization ng mga sistema ng espasyo9 ay partikular na nakakagambala sa pandaigdigang kapayapaan at pagkakaisa.
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Sanggunian:
- Ambrose WA, Reilly JF, at Peters DC, 2013. Mga Mapagkukunan ng Enerhiya para sa Human Settlement sa Solar System at Earth's Future sa Space. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1306/M1011336
- Ambrose WA 2013. Ang Kahalagahan ng Lunar Water Ice at Iba pang Yamang Mineral para sa mga Rocket Propellant at Human Settlement ng Buwan. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1306/13361567M1013540
- Li S., et al 2018. Direktang katibayan ng nakalantad na tubig na yelo sa ibabaw sa mga rehiyong polar ng buwan. Earth, Atmospheric, at Planetary Sciences. Agosto 20, 2018, 115 (36) 8907-8912. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1802345115
- Criswell DR 2013. Ang Sun–Moon–Earth Solar–electric Power System para Paganahin ang Walang limitasyong Kaunlaran ng Tao. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1306/13361570M1013545 & Lunar Solar Power System DOI: https://doi.org/10.1109/45.489729
- Zhang T., et al 2021. Pagsusuri sa enerhiya ng kalawakan. Applied Energy Volume 292, 15 June 2021, 116896. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.116896
- Lagerkvist J., 2023. Loyalty to the Nation: Lunar and Martian Exploration for Lasting Greatness. Na-publish noong Agosto 22, 2023. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-40037-7_4
- Zanidis T., 2023. The New Space Race: Between the Great Powers of our Era. Vol. 4 No. 1 (2023): HAPSc Policy Briefs Series. Na-publish: Hun 29, 2023. DOI: https://doi.org/10.12681/hapscpbs.35187
- Hanssen, SGL 2023. Paglalayon sa Buwan: Paggalugad sa Geopolitical na Kahalagahan ng Programang Artemis. UiT Munin. Available sa https://hdl.handle.net/10037/29664
- Adkison, TCL 2023. Laser Weaponization Technologies ng Space System sa Outer Space Warfare: Isang Qualitative Study. Mga Dissertasyon ng Colorado Technical University. Available sa https://www.proquest.com/openview/a982160c4a95f6683507078a7f3c946a/1?pq-origsite=gscholar&cbl=18750&diss=y
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